Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Military Analysis: The Energy of an Offensive



Legendary Three Kingdoms era strategist Zhuge Liang once said:



"The Sharpest Arrow in the World would not penetrate a thin silk cloth at the end of its flight"





Do take a moment to ponder what Zhuge Liang meant by the above quote.

A sharp arrow being released from a bow of an archer will pierce through everything in its wake...

However, after a period of time, the arrow loses kinetic energy and it starts to slow down...


And what happens when the arrow slows down?


It would not pierce through anything as cleanly as before.


And when finally the arrow loses all its initial kinetic energy, it falls to the ground: Useless.


And that is when a sharp arrow is at its most vulnerable...



Well, in layman terms, the actual meaning of this quote is basically: Everything will meet its end.


There is a limit to everything.


And likewise, there is only a sharp pinnacle or peak of energy of a military offensive before the offensive begins to wear itself out.


Many atimes in history have we seen an example of a military campaign (offensive campaign) that got bogged down after losing its initial energy in hostile territory and then slowly began to wear itself out.


And when the offensive is worn out totally, the time would be ripe for the adversary to launch a counter-offensive to gain the lost initiative.


That is what Zhuge Liang meant.


A powerful, dreadful, well-supplied, well-trained, well-fed, numerous, superior army when being deployed to the front for an offensive is like that of a sharp arrow.


At the beginning of the campaign, its adversary will have trouble dealing with this particular threat... and that is if the adversary chooses to meet this threat as soon as he could.

If the "arrow" is being drawn in and allowed to slowly wear out by manipulating time and space against it, it will meet its end.

We have seen this many atimes in history:

- When Three Kingdoms (208AD-280AD) era warlord Cao Cao assembled a huge army (some Chinese historians say only 8,000 men were deployed while the records say 800,000, and I personally allign my view to Professor Yi Zhongtian of Xiamen University-roughly about 200,000 to 400,000 men) for his southern expedition against the rival warlords Liu Bei and Sun Quan of Wu, his army met destruction at Red Cliff. His army (Chinese infantry, Chinese mounted infantry, Steppe mercenary horsemen) was like an arrow at the end of its flight; having marched from a long way as far north as Liaodong; and his men were naturally tired and worn-out.

- The German invasion of Russia during the second world war is another perfect example of a sharp arrow at the end of its flight. Before Operation Barbarossa the Wehrmacht was at its prime condition. The German mechanized divisions were also at its prime and the "arrow" was not only sharp but also thick due to the scale of the campaign in which how the Germans conducted it. However, the arrow lost its energy; and of course, with the help of General Winter, Russia's best ally, the Germans lost the initiative and the Wehrmacht was at the end of its flight following the Battle of Moscow in late 1941.

- Napoleon Bonaparte's 1812 invasion of Russia is definitely a must-said and also another perfect example of an arrow at the end of its flight. His Grande Armee de la France was decimated on the cold and frozen steppes of Russia. Again, his Grande Armee was at the peak of its power before the army crossed the Niemen river (border between French control and Russian territory). The Russians choose to avoid the "arrow" and let it fly all the way into Moscow itself. And of course, General Winter aided the Russians as we have seen through history.

Of course the list is not exhaustive and there are many many more examples but the above three is famous and clear as lessons for the commander about the energy of an offensive.

The energy must be grasped and exploited by the commander and deployed rapidly and efficiently for the success of a campaign.

For the defender who is up against this arrow: choosing to avoid direct confrontation is the best and wisest strategy. Manipulate and do everything it takes to enable the arrow to lose its energy as fast as possible, and when the initiative is gone and the "arrow" hits the floor, the time to counterstrike has come.

After all, SunZi said:

"In the morning, the soldiers are spirited and ready for battle. By noon, they grow weary and lackadaisical. By evening, they lose their vigilance and spirit."

I'll be back soon, and til then,

Godspeed.

Sunday, December 28, 2008

The Judging of Others

Hallo Everyone!


I'm back from a long rest... been busy during my holidays. I've been catching up with old friends and buying stuff, and now that Christmas is over I cannot believe that everything is going past so fast! Even today I was at a supermarket (I won't mention the branch) and I was shocked because the supermarket was embellished with a Chinese New Year theme and they aired the 'Gong Xi Fa Cai' song. I can't believe it! hahaha!

Ok, back to business. Over the last few weeks I noticed a trend of us humans that caught my attention. I will not be doing a military analysis this round but rather I would like to blog about Judging.

We humans tend to judge swiftly and ruthlessly. This materialistic world that we live in today exacerbates the natural tenacity of us mankind to judge quickly whether positively or negatively, but mostly, negatively.

I personally witness a couple of incidents that led me to this conclusion. In fact, there is a psychological factor on why we judge others quickly. It has a similar linkage to the idea of forming pre-conceived ideas or the idea of forming stereotypes of groups of people. It is essentially: to make our complex world easier for us to understand. We subconsciously do it, but
even though it is subconsciously done, we can stop ourselves.

We must remember, that it is not for us to judge people in the end. Only God is the perfect candidate to judge, and there is a very good example from the Holy Bible that talks about judging others. It is from Chapter 8 of the book of John from the New Testament, and I shall quote it from the King James Version:


Jesus went unto the mount of Olives.

And early in the morning he came again into the temple, and all the people came unto him; and he
sat down, and taught them.

And the scribes and Pharisees brought unto him a woman taken in adultery; and when they had set her in the midst,

They say unto him, Master, this woman was taken in adultery, in the very act.

Now Moses in the law commanded us, that such should be stoned: but what sayest thou?

This they said, tempting him, that they might have to accuse him. But Jesus stooped down, and with his finger wrote on the ground, as though he heard them not.

So when they continued asking him, he lifted up himself, and said unto them, He that is without sin among you, let him first cast a stone at her.

And again he stooped down, and wrote on the ground.

And they which heard it, being convicted by their own conscience, went out one by one, beginning at the eldest, even unto the last: and Jesus was left alone, and the woman standing in the midst.

When Jesus had lifted up himself, and saw none but the woman, he said unto her, Woman, where are those thine accusers? hath no man condemned thee?

She said, No man, Lord. And Jesus said unto her, Neither do I condemn thee: go, and sin no more.


John 8:1-11, KJV.

This excerpt from the Bible is an extremely good example about judging. When I read this reading I was inspired not only by how great Jesus was in handling the situation but also by how accurately it showed the darkest of human depravity. In fact, I am also partly motivated by Pastor Seet's message on the 7th of December 'Who Should Cast the First Stone?' and the scripture test he used for his message was this particular reading from the Book of John.

I will now explain this particular reading. Basically, the scribes and the Pharisees are a group of Jewish people (in Jesus' time in Israel) that felt threatened and were offended by Jesus and they sought to harm him. This same group of people will later be the ones who delivered Jesus to the Roman authorities to be crucified. But this excerpt tells us of one of earlier occasions whereby they failed to harm Jesus.

Basically, the tradition of the Jews was that whosoever broke any of their laws must be stoned. However, during the time of Jesus, Israel was ruled by the Romans (era of Augustus) and was a tributary land under the Roman Empire. The Roman authorities banned the Jews from stoning anybody. With that being the case, whoever who encouraged or spur this very practice of stone throwing would be handed over to the Roman authorities to get dealt with according to Roman law. And that is what the scribes and Pharisees wanted to do to Jesus.

So they brought a woman (we do not know whether she really committed adultery, but we can assume she did or did not) to Jesus, who was preaching in the temple. Their plan was to put Jesus into a situation of dilemna. They would ask Jesus on how to deal with this woman, and they would question him into a state of dilemna. "Now Moses in the law commanded us, that such should be stoned: but what sayest thou?" - John 8:5

If Jesus told them to stone her, then the scribes and the Pharisees would have to excuse to deliver Jesus to the Roman authorities because Jesus would have broken the Roman law. However, if Jesus were to do nothing, then the scribes and Pharisees would discredit Jesus in front of all the people who believed Jesus because if Jesus do not do anything then simply the message sent out to the masses was that he encouraged adultery. And if that happens, it would be easier for the scribes and Pharisees to capture Jesus.

However, Jesus knew of their plan and ill-intentions. The scribes and Pharisees changed their attitude towards him. Earlier in the book of John, they called him blasphemer and devil, but now they called him: Master. Jesus looking down on the ground and tracing the floor with his finger is just another way of saying: I don't have to talk to you.

Jesus simply responded by saying: "He that is without sin among you, let him first cast a stone at her." Knowing that he has conscience as his ally, his message was simple. The scribes and Pharisees realised that they had sinned and with that being the case, they felt guilty to stone the woman before Jesus, and all of them left.

This account from the Gospel goes a long way to tell us about judging. Whether you are Christian or non-Christian is not the issue. Only God is the perfect and righteous judge before men. We are not perfect and we simply have the habit to judge others. But the message is simple: Do not judge others because you would be judged as well.

I will be back with another entry and this time it would probably be a campaign commentary! :)

Take care and til then,

Godspeed

Monday, December 22, 2008

RE: Analysis on Envelopments

Hallo Everyone!

Well I just moved over to blogspot from livejournal and yes I should start it off with an analysis. Now that I finally got the time to start on my campaigns' commentaries proper I'll start with something you military junkies should definitely know and .. perhaps.. love.. haha =) Well you guys should know what I mean... Marathon... Changping... Cannae... Yea! Double Envelopments! =)

Battles of double envelopments have always intrigued every military buff, student of history and even business leaders, and not to mention the carnage and devastation that this tactic has brought upon those who have fought and fallen in history.In fact, I've never liked this method because of the destruction and the unnecessary death toll it brings. However, being a fan of ancient warfare I naturally find it one of the most intriguing, interesting, and inspiring tactic to be employed to achieve victory on the battlefield.I took a deep interest in studying battles of double envelopments in the ancient world last year and one particularly insightful book on the famous Battle of Cannae that I've found interesting is 'Cannae' by reowned historian Adrian Goldsworthy. In fact, Cannae is one of my favourite double envelopment battles of the ancient world because of the significance of it and the idea of how this particular battle has become a model and motivated many generals since then. In fact, you military junkies should know, that the Schlieffen Plan (the German victory plan for WWI) drafted by von Schlieffen was motivated out of this particular battle. Subsequently, 'Stormin' Norman Schwarzkopf incorporated the 'Cannae model' for the US led Coalition forces in Iraq and Kuwait during Operation Desert Storm.Well, for those of you who are not familiar with the legendary Battle of Cannae, I will now give you a short and brief introduction on it (military/history junkies you might want to skip this part haha) :


Before Rome was an Empire, it was a republic ruled by a governing body called the Senate and it comprised of Roman nobles. Rome warred with the Greek colonies on the Italian peninsular for centuries until Rome unified the entire peninsular. And, as we all know; since the Italian peninsular is located at the center of the Mediterranean; once Rome controlled Italy, interference with the power struggles surrounding the Mediterranean (Greece, Hispania, North Africa) was natural. However, long before Rome became a regional power, the Carthaginians (Empire of Carthage) owned the crown of the Mediterranean. The city of Carthage (near present day Tunis) was the center of trade, wealth and culture in the Mediterranean. I can say that the Romans stole the crown from Carthage. In short, Rome fought three long and bloody wars over a span of 100 years with Carthage, and in the end, there can only be one victor. And that victor would later go on to conquer a large chunk of Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. This is what we all know. What we do not know is the brutal life and death struggle that these two regional powers engaged in. Our attention would be turned particularly to the Second Punic War, when the Battle of Cannae happened. Here is a map of the situation before the Second Punic War 218 B.C., courtesy of wikipedia:


Roman territories in pink, Carthaginian territories in purple.


218 years before the birth of our Lord, the famous and brilliant Carthaginian general, Hannibal Barca, set out with an army of close to 100,000 men (according to Goldsworthy: 90,000 infantry, 12,000 cavalry & 37 war elephants) from his base in Spain (see the map above). Hannibal sparked the Second Punic War and he was determined to win this war for Carthage because in the first war with Rome, Carthage lost. His strategy was revolutionary at that time because he plans to bring the war to Roman soil. In the first war, (Hannibal was not born then) the Carthaginians developed a defensive strategy and they lost. This time, during the Second Punic War, the Romans expected the Carthaginians to use the same strategy and wait. In fact, this is what Hannibal wants them to think. His plan turned out to be one of the most audacious move in military history and it would earn much respect from military captains throughout the history of the world. From Spain, he would march his army north, through the Pyrenees, up into southern Gaul and across the Rhone and finally, across the treacherous Alps. This march would prove to be extremely risky and a toll to the Carthaginians, due to the terrain of the march, the amount of supplies that has to be prepared and brought along (war elephants require a lot of food to be sustained) and the Gaullic tribes that are hostile to anyone along the route. Hannibal knows it, and the Romans know it too. This is the reason why the Romans do not expect the Carthaginians to launch an inland invasion from Spain onto Rome, and Hannibal would be the enemy that will forever be remembered as the one who shocked and surprised the Romans. Here is a map of the invasion route of Hannibal :




Thousands of Hannibal's men perished along the perilous march. Not only do they have to march across treacherous terrains, but the weather was a constant problem as Hannibal's men were mostly North Africans (Libyans, Numidians, Hispanics) and these men were used to the warm climate of the Mediterranean. The minute Hannibal crossed the Pyrenees (the mountain range that separated Spain from southern France), the temperature dropped and many of his men fell ill. Supplies was always a constant problem, because the Numidian cavalry needed dry hay and the elephants needed tons of food to be sustained. Additionally, along the way, Hannibal's columns were constantly harassed and ambushed by Gaullic tribes. Lastly, he had to cross the Alps (which the Romans woud never dream that any sane man would do that). Moreover, Hannibal took his army across the Alps during the Winter!! We do not exactly know how many men lost their lives along the march alone. According to Goldsworthy, when Hannibal finally made it across the Alps, his army shrunk to 20,000 infantry and 6,000 cavalry and only 6 elephants. This is almost an 80% loss of his forces!And now, with the morale of his army at an all time low, and his men suffering from the harsh cold, starving and weak, they are only at the beginning of the campaign. Hannibal now had to face the Romans, who are better fed, better supplied and at a better state compared to his army. Hannibal, through the years of 218 BC and 217 BC, would triumph and destroy two Roman armies at the Battle of Trebia and at Trasimene on Roman soil. I would not be explaning how he won those two battles, but our focus would be on his greatest victory, at the plains near the town of Cannae, fought in 216 BC. Basically, the Romans in 216 BC wanted to get rid of Hannibal at all costs and they decided to change their strategy and get rid of the Fabian Plan. I will not be going into the politics of the Roman Senate as it would be too much to be explained and elucidated. If you want to know about the Fabian Plan just leave me a comment. I'll be happy to tell you about it.





The Romans, in 216 BC, fielded the largest ever assembled army in the history of the Roman Republic until the time of Julius Caesar. A total of 8 legions would carry the Roman standart to march against Hannibal's forces. A total of 86,000 Romans would face off with Hannibal's forces of 40,000 infantry and 8,000 cavalry and a few thousand more light infantry. He was outnumbered two to one and this time, he had no where to run to.The Romans chose a flat plain flanked by a river to the left and low hills to the right to maximise their numerical superiority and as well as to ensure Hannibal do not ambush them in any other way (at the battles of Trebia and Trasimene the Romans lost because of Hannibal's ambushes). Hannibal merely smiled at the choice of the battle site because a flat plain is what he exactly wanted. His plan would be one of the most challenging moves in military history to be executed. This is his battle allignment and the deployment of the Roman positions, again, courtesy of wikipedia:




Dispositions [Red: Romans] [Blue: Carthaginians]

Hannibal would line up his army into a crescent shaped formation to suck the mass of the Roman infantry in. His cavalry at his left and right flanks would drive away the Roman cavalry and then later return to cut the escape route of the enveloped Roman force. On the 2nd of August in 216 BC the battle was fought with the Romans being confident of total victory, however, after only a few hours on the dusty plain, Hannibal had not only defeated but virtually annihilated the entire Roman force. Historians differ on the death toll, but many would say that at least 50,000 to 70,000 Romans alone perished in the battle. Relatively to the modern era, the battle of Cannae back then can be said to be like an industrialised massacre in our present era, like the battle of Stalingrad and the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in the second world war.





The double envelopment: Hannibal deploys his elite infantry at both the left and right flanks.

The Carthaginian cavalry returns to the rear of the Roman forces to cut off their retreat.
Hannibal did everything in his power to upset and confuse the superior and advantaged Roman forces. He dispatched his light Numidian cavalry to harass the water supplies of the Roman camp days before the battle. He positioned his men on the plain so that the sunlight will not shine into the eyes of his men but into the eyes of the Romans. He also positioned his forces so that the dust blown by the wind will be poured onto the Roman legions. All these tactics proved successful to enable the Roman legionaries to be confused during the encirclement. With all the dust blown and the thunderous noise of thousands of men marching and slashing and the sunlight blinding the Romans, most of them were not aware of the trap even when the encirclement/envelopment is complete.This battle was flawlessly executed and even many of Hannibal's captains and officers were shocked by his adacious plan and ingenuity against a superior foe. However, Hannibal, after annihilating this gigantic Roman force at Cannae, was poised to make history but his actions would change history forever. His fellow commanders recommend to march on Rome and take it. However, he did not. We do not know why Hannibal did not march on Rome. Many historians across the world differ on their views on Hannibal's actions afer Cannae. Goldsworthy himself stated a few reasons in his book. If Hannibal had taken Rome, I would not like to fathom what would happen. History could have changed forever. Latin would not even exist. I wonder whether if the Lord's word would ever take root in Europe. There would not be a Roman calender and that is for sure. Everything that Roman civilisation has brought to Europe and the world would not have happened. For those of you who want to know more about post-Cannae and what happened to Rome and Hannibal and Carthage leave a comment. I'll be happy to talk to you about it. =)
And there. The famous battle of Cannae. My main purpose of this entry was actually to analyse the reasons of success of double envelopments. However, due to space constraint I could only explain one of all the famous battles of encirclements and I chose Cannae. In terms of military tactics and in modern warfare, the last thing a commander of a company would want is to discover that the enemy is on all sides and that his men are cut off from their communication and supply lines, likewise not to mention a general or a commander of an army.
This is my thoughts and opinions based on historical battles on how to execute envelopments:- Most envelopments in history are forced to be employed by military commanders who used envelopments in the face of a superior enemy. They simply had no choice but to lure their adversary into a trap.
- Your enemy must be confident of victory over you. Just like the Romans at Cannae, refering to the famed battle of Marathon in 490 BC, the Persian force was confident against the Athenians and the Athenians surprised them with a double envelopment attack.
- Tactically, your forces must be more mobile than the your adversary. Hannibal manged to cut off the Roman escape route by his superior cavalry commanded by his fellow commander, Hasdrubal. Similarly, the Mongols at the battle of Mohi (present day Ukraine) under the command of my favourite Mongol general, Subedei/Subutai managed to encirlce the large Hungarian force with mobile mounted archers and mounted swordsmen. The European knights and footmen were too immobile and slow, and therefore the Mongols had mobility superiority, which enabled them to sweep around the flanks of their adversary.
- Strategically, for an envelopment to be successful, your enemy must not be aware of your plan and naturally, not expecting it. Basically, the way for an envelopment to be successfuI is to fight unconventionally. I refer to the Korean war in 1950, where the Chinese forces time and time again enveloped the American forces. The Americans fought the campaign conventionally. Like sticking to the main roads/highways for their advance and their supplies, using superior artillery fire and air support to break through enemy lines. The Chinese forces marched through high hills and forests and cut off American supply lines and ambushed American forces on all sides. In this case, the Americans were actually more mobile than the Chinese forces (because the Americans had light support vehicles and a fast moving supply system) but only conventionally. I would also like to refer to Stalingrad. You military junkies should know. =) The famous battle of Stalingrad fought in 1942 to the spring of 1943 was the result of a Russian envelopment of the German forces sieging the city. Here is a link to the battle plan if you want to see it: www.armchairgeneral.com/alpha/ew_images/Stalingrad.gifThe German High Command did not expect or it could have been that they refused to expect it. That we do not know but what we do know is that the Russian counter-offensive was a surprise under the cover of snow and winter and the Germans suffered a hige loss which became a blow to their situation on the Eastern Front, and would eventually lead to the failure of the conquest of Russia. Therefore, no matter what, in order for an envelopment to be successful, you must be able to take your enemy by surprise. You must have strategic advantage.
- Possessing Good Intelligence is extremely vital and definitely required on your part. You must know the situation on the ground level clearly for a perfect execution. Like Hannibal, he knew how the Roman legions fought and their organisation, and therefore he exploited the strengths and weaknesses of his adversary for his trap and plan. You must be clear and aware of the various dispositions of both your own forces and your adversary's. With good intelligence, a decisive point of attack could be planned and coordinated. Like what Sun Zi stated in the Art of War: Know yourself, know your enemy, in a hundred battles you will gain hundred victories. Know Heaven and Earth, your victory would be complete.
Of course, the list above is not exhaustive. Things like discipline and organisation cannot be overlooken. However, after looking and analysing the famous battles of envelopments in history.
The above points are extremely crucial for a perfect execution. Many battles have been fought in history that showed examples of failed envelopments, due to poor execution.
If you have any questions or you feel that you want to discuss with me regarding my analysis above do leave a comment!If not thanks guys it's been a long entry. I'll be back very soon! =)
Til then,
Godspeed